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CG

Coronado Global Resources Inc. (CODQL)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $558M, down 8.3% q/q as realized met coal prices fell 9% to $163/t; however, average mining costs per tonne improved 17% q/q to $97.3/t on cost-outs at Curragh and inventory build-through, with liquidity rising to $468M .
  • Operational execution improved: Group ROM +8.8% q/q to 6.9 Mt; Saleable +4.1% q/q to 4.0 Mt; Sales volumes +4.7% q/q to 4.1 Mt; Mammoth Underground delivered first coal on time/on budget, and Buchanan’s expansion remains on schedule .
  • Strategic setup for 2025: management guided to 16.8–18.0 Mt saleable, $92–$105/t mining costs, and $230–$270M capex, with growth weighted to 2H as Mammoth ramps and Buchanan de-bottlenecks; dividend of $0.005 per CDI declared .
  • Medium-term catalyst: expiry of the Stanwell legacy arrangement in late 2026/early 2027 should lift cash generation (no export rebate and ~1 Mt freed for export), with CEO noting an “approximately 10%” group mining cost reduction from the change .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Mammoth Underground delivered “first coal” on time and budget; ramp throughout 2025 expected to add 1.5–2.0 Mtpa saleable, lowering Curragh’s cost base; “We officially opened Mammoth Underground Mine in December… delivered on time and to budget” .
    • Cost-out traction: average mining cost per tonne fell to $97.3/t (−17% q/q), with Australia at $89.8/t; CEO highlighted ~$100M cost reduction in 2024 and a target of ~$82/t for Australia once Mammoth reaches steady state .
    • Liquidity strengthened to $468M; net debt improved to $85M after refinancing with oversubscribed 9.25% 2029 notes; FY safety rates below industry averages (TRIR/TRIFR both 2.22 in AU/US at Dec 31) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Pricing headwinds: Group realized met price fell 9% q/q to $163/t; AU FOB −9% q/q; US FOR −9.5% q/q; revenue −8.3% q/q; PLV HCC index down ~4% q/q .
    • Mix and operations: Met mix eased (76.6% vs 81.0% in Q3); US saleable −8.6% q/q due to scheduled longwall move; export % slightly lower; intermittent power outages at Curragh limited December processing .
    • Annual: FY24 revenue fell 13% y/y on lower seaborne pricing and US domestic contract pricing; average mining costs for FY remained ~flat y/y given earlier-year headwinds before the cost-out flowed through .

Financial Results

  • Core quarterly comparison (oldest → newest)
MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$673.8 $608.2 $557.5
Sales Volumes (Mt)4.1 3.9 4.1
Group Realised Met Price ($/t)$194.7 $179.6 $163.2
Average Mining Costs per Tonne Sold ($/t)$91.1 $117.7 $97.3
Met Coal Revenue %96.2% 95.2% 94.0%
Available Liquidity ($M)$414.4 $326.1 $467.9
Net Debt ($M, + = net debt)$4.7 $93.9 $85.1
  • Segment breakdown
Segment KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
AU Sales Volumes (Mt)2.7 2.4 2.6
US Sales Volumes (Mt)1.4 1.5 1.6
AU Realised Met Price (FOB, $/t)$216.2 $193.8 $176.9
US Realised Met Price (FOR, $/t)$161.7 $162.8 $147.3
  • KPIs and safety
KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Group ROM Production (Mt)7.4 6.3 6.9
Saleable Production (Mt)4.1 3.8 4.0
Capital Expenditure ($M)$64.5 $69.5 $44
Closing Cash (excl. restricted) ($M)$264.4 $176.1 $339.4
Group TRIR1.01 1.13 1.18
Australia TRIFR1.29 1.54 2.22
U.S. TRIR2.26 2.41 2.22

Notes: Management indicated that Q4 mining cost per tonne benefited from inventory build and cost actions at Curragh, with further benefit expected in Q1 2025 as 0.6 Mt ROM inventory is processed .

EPS/Net Income: The Q4 ASX quarterly activities report does not provide EPS or GAAP net income; management indicated the company would release full Q4 and FY results in the 10‑K on February 20, 2025 (AEST) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Saleable Production (MMt)FY2025—16.8 – 18.0Introduced
Mining Cost per Tonne Sold ($/t)FY2025—$92 – $105Introduced
Capital Expenditure ($M)FY2025—$230 – $270Introduced
US Annual Domestic Contracts (FOR $/t)FY2025 vs FY2024~$161 FY2024~ $159 FY2025Maintained/slightly lower
FY2024 Saleable Production (MMt)FY202416.4 – 17.215.4 – 16.0Lowered (Sept revision)
FY2024 Avg Mining Cost ($/t)FY2024$95 – $99$105 – $110Raised (Sept revision)
DividendFY2024 cycle—$0.005 per CDI (franked)Declared

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q4/FY call)Trend
Cost reductions & productivityQ2: Curragh cost/t fell to $81.7 on fleet removals; group avg $91.1/t; further cost-out planned . Q3: higher costs from weather/geology but ongoing demobilizations .CEO cites ~$100M 2024 cost reduction; targeting ~$82/t in AU at steady state with Mammoth .Improving
Mammoth Underground (Curragh)Q2: approvals and site works on schedule, first coal targeted Dec 2024 . Q3: on budget/schedule .First coal achieved Dec 2024; ramp through 2025; 1.5–2.0 Mtpa phase 1 .Executing
Buchanan expansionQ2: skips/stockpile projects progressing; Apr–May 2025 commissioning . Q3: timelines maintained .On track for Q2 2025 commissioning (skips, raw coal storage) .Executing
Stanwell contract expiryLegacy rebates and 3 Mtpa obligation until early 2027; NSCA reduces to ~2 Mtpa with no export rebates .CEO: significant cash uplift post-expiry; ~10% lower group mining cost from change .Positive setup
Macro/marketQ2: PLV index fell; expected India restock support . Q3: steel/macro softness; index hit 3‑yr low; expected rebound ex‑China .Stable Q4 prices; 2025 demand recovery ex‑China; India restock and policy support noted .Stabilizing
SafetyQ2: TRIR 1.01; AU TRIFR 1.29; US 2.26 . Q3: Group TRIR 1.13 .Group TRIR 1.18; AU/US TRIFR/TRIR both 2.22; both below industry averages .Steady/below peers

Management Commentary

  • “We officially opened Mammoth Underground Mine in December… delivered on time and to budget. We expect to ramp up production throughout 2025 as we progressively commission each new panel… The focus for 2025 remains on driving operational improvements and further reducing costs.” — Douglas Thompson, CEO .
  • “To highlight the magnitude of $100 million reduction, mining costs have decreased 66% from January to December... We’re targeting $82 a tonne for our Australian operations… Mammoth… will also play an important role in the cost reduction by increased sales.” — CEO, FY24 investor call .
  • “It is important to make clear the substantial value uplift… once the existing Stanwell supply coal agreement expires… we will now have an additional 1 million tonnes to sell into the export market… the Stanwell rebate will no longer be payable… approximately 10% lower mining cost at a group level.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • The FY24 investor call concluded without a Q&A session; no additional clarifications beyond prepared remarks were provided .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue/EBITDA could not be retrieved due to S&P Global daily request limits; therefore, we cannot provide a vs-consensus comparison for this quarter. Management indicated full Q4 GAAP results were to be published with the 10‑K on February 20, 2025 (AEST) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Execution turning the corner: Costs/t improved sharply in Q4; further tailwinds expected in early 2025 as Q4 ROM inventory is processed and Mammoth ramps .
  • Price vs cost: Realized prices fell q/q, but cost improvements largely offset margin pressure; maintaining the trajectory to FY25 cost guide ($92–$105/t) is key .
  • 2025 is 2H‑weighted: Production/cost benefits skew to H2’25 with Mammoth and Buchanan expansions; watch commissioning milestones in Q2’25 for Buchanan .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity: Post-refi, liquidity improved to ~$468M; net leverage contained; sets up funding for organic projects without equity .
  • Medium-term re‑rating catalyst: Stanwell expiry reduces costs (no rebate) and frees ~1 Mt for seaborne sales, structurally lifting margins and FCF from late 2026/early 2027 .
  • Dividend reinstatement: $0.005 per CDI declared; supports a total-return framework as growth capex transitions to cash harvest .
  • Risk watch: Commodity price volatility and operational ramp risks (Mammoth/Buchanan) remain; but multi-basin portfolio and term contracts provide some cushion .

Additional Q4 2024 Details and Press Releases

  • Mammoth Underground approvals and opening announcement (Dec 12, 2024) confirmed first coal and strategic intent to lower costs and grow volumes .
  • CFO transition: resignation announced Nov 6, 2024; subsequent appointment of Barrie van der Merwe effective April 1, 2025 mentioned in Q4 report .